Bison

Industry intelligence that matters

Category: Public Markets

The Horizon IRR Metric Keeps Being Misused

by Michael Roth

Accurately measuring performance and estimating asset class returns is the most important part of the asset allocation process. The reason it is important is two-fold: (1) return estimates have the biggest impact on your asset allocation model and (2) studies have shown that asset allocation is a critical component of returns.

Considering this, industry trade groups, like the BVCA, and service providers, like Cambridge Associates, continue to inappropriately tout a horizon IRR calculation in comparison to the public market’s 1,3, 5, or 10 year time weighted rate of return.

As I have discussed previously, it is a mistake to think an IRR and a time weighted return are one and the same. Both are annualized rates of return but they deal with cash inflows and outflows in different ways. IRR specifically accounts for the timing and size of cash flows when calculating the returns generated while the time weighted return specifically excludes the impact of cash flows and weights the returns in each time period equally. Each method has their shortcomings and ideal use cases. Take these metrics out of context and they can be misleading.

What difference does a return calculation make?

I used a portfolio of 481 North America and Global buyout funds from Bison’s cash flow dataset to analyze the difference between the horizon IRR and the time weighted return. Both return calculations were performed using quarterly cash flows. Read the rest of this entry »

Should Private Equity Fees and Carried Interest be Changed?

by Michael Roth

The media has made a big deal recently about private equity fees due to the revelations that CalPERS and CalSTRS have not kept track of the fees paid and carried interest earned by their private equity managers. More broadly, there is an increasing effort by LPs to receive greater disclosure about fees and reduce expenses.

My concern is that, in most cases, the focus on fees overlooks the real question: Do private equity returns justify the amount paid in fees and carry?

In this post, I will analyze the management fees paid to private equity managers but also look at them in the context of returns generated. Good returns should be rewarded but perhaps the conditions for receiving carried interest should be revisited.

Public Equity and Private Equity Fees Are Structured Differently

Private equity fees are frequently criticized as being outrageous in relation to their public market mutual fund peers. The glaring problem with this comparison is that mutual funds and private equity funds charge their fees on a different base. Private equity funds charge a 1.5 – 2% fee on commitments during the 5 year investment period. Thereafter, funds typically charge .75 – 1.25% of net asset value. Mutual funds charge an ad valorem fee, meaning the fee is charged on the fund’s NAV. As the fund’s value increases, your management fee, in absolute terms, goes up.

To get a sense for the cost of management fees, I chose to compare Carlyle Partners IV to an index fund, a large cap mutual fund, and a small cap mutual fund. These three mutual funds will highlight the impact of fees at the different fee levels.

Chart 1

Clearly, an index fund charges a fraction of the cost of a mutual fund or a private equity fund. However, if you have an investment mandate to earn returns in excess of the market, you are not going to choose an index fund. The more interesting comparisons are the large cap and small cap mutual funds against Carlyle IV. Just glancing at the numbers, it appears that Carlyle Partners IV is charging more than twice as much as Fidelity and 21% more than Putnam’s fund.

Fees Need to be Viewed on an “Apples to Apples” Basis

Critics inaccurately condemn private equity because they just look at the headline number. Let’s compare the cost of fees over a 10 year period to evaluate the true cost over the typical private equity fund’s life. For the three mutual funds, I used their 10 year returns in my assumptions to calculate the average fee over time.

Chart 2

For Carlyle IV, I assume the fees are the same as what they are for their more recent flagship funds. I use the fund’s actual NAVs, based on Bison’s cash flow data, to determine the post-investment period fees.

Over the 10-year span, Carlyle IV’s fees were just 6% more than Fidelity’s fund but were 40% LESS than Putnam’s fund. When an accurate comparison is done, private equity management fees do not look nearly as egregious as headlines may lead you to believe.

You Must Consider Returns

The question I asked at the beginning was whether or not private equity returns justify the amount paid in fees and carry?

To answer this question I looked at returns in two ways. First, I performed a simple analysis which calculated a TVPI multiple for the public market funds using their 10-year average annual return.

Chart 3

Using the 10-year CAGR for the three mutual funds, I arrived at each investment’s value after ten years. The TVPI multiple is equal to End Value / Commitment. Despite an average management fee that was 6% higher AND a 20% incentive fee, Carlyle IV managed to generate 13.6% more value than Fidelity’s fund. In the case of Putnam’s fund, Carlyle IV outperformed the fund while costing almost $700,000 less than in management fees.

This comparison is not completely relevant for analyzing a private equity manager because it ignores the PE manager’s ability to manage the cash flows. To account for this, I performed a PME analysis against the S&P 500 Total Return Index. The analysis tells a compelling story about the differential between Carlyle IV and the public markets.

Chart 4

Buying and selling the S&P 500 Total Return Index at the same times as Carlyle IV would have resulted in a 1.22x TVPI multiple and a 3.65% net IRR.

For those who think I may have selected a very convenient example to illustrate my point, I would refer you to my last piece, which analyzed the PME performance of North American and Global private equity funds. In nine of thirteen vintage years, buyout funds outperformed the Russell 2000. Digging into a fund level analysis, 52% of buyout funds analyzed outperformed the Russell 2000.

Carried Interest Hurdles Rates Should be Changed

When a fund’s returns are good, their fees look justified but what can you do when the returns are poor? Private equity gets it right by structuring the fees to have an incentive component. It is hard to justify Putnam earning 1.7% on average over the last 10 years given that they have returned just 6.2% annually.

Despite the conditional nature of carried interest, there is still an outcry over their payment. Part of this is partisan political beliefs that will never be satisfied but part of it is due to insufficient hurdle rates. There is a mismatch between the return expectations LPs place on themselves and the GPs. Internally, many LPs expect private equity to beat the public markets by 200 – 300 bps but they allow GPs to earn carried interest by generating an IRR greater than 8%. LPs should force GPs to meet the same return hurdles that they place on themselves.

Wrapping Up

Private equity fees are appropriately divided into management fees and carried interest. This ensures that managers are incentivized to maximize returns and not just accumulate assets. To ensure that incentives are completely aligned, the hurdle rate should be modified to acknowledge the link between public markets and private equity markets. Strong performance should be rewarded but that reward should include a condition that the manager generates excess returns over a market benchmark.

Introducing Bison PME

by goksor

CHANGING HOW YOU THINK ABOUT PME BENCHMARKING

Today Bison is announcing the Bison PME methodology for estimating an IRR for a public market index. The new methodology addresses shortcomings of other public market equivalent (PME) IRR methods and how they handle cash flows. It is built on the work of Steven N. Kaplan and Antoinette Schoar presented in a 2005 paper titled Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence, and Capital Flows and introduces a way for estimating public market index cash flows for PME analysis. Investors can use the Bison PME alongside Kaplan Schoar PME to evaluate the speed and size by which alpha is generated relative to public markets.

IRR AND ESTIMATING PME PERFORMANCE

Investors increasingly use PME calculations to determine whether a fund manager is able to outperform the public markets. Where investors calculate public market returns using a time-weighted return calculation, they calculate private equity returns using a money-weighted return calculation (IRR). This has led to apples and oranges comparisons that are hard to evaluate. PME calculations enable investors to calculate a money-weighted return for a public market index.

Most of the PME calculations generate an IRR for a certain market index. This allows for apples to apples comparison of a fund’s IRR versus a public market index. It means, however, that PME calculations are exposed to some of the problems inherent in evaluating returns with only an IRR metric. For instance, we have previously shown that an early distribution can inflate a fund’s IRR and similarly that a fund with a lower TVPI multiple can generate the same IRR as a fund with higher TVPI multiple. There are two major points to remember about why IRR is best understood in combination with a TVPI:

IRR is a money-weighted measure – The IRR calculation is impacted by the size and timing of cash flows. This exposes the calculation to manipulation since multiple variations of cash flows can generate the same IRR. For PME IRR calculations, we believe it is important to replicate the pace of value realization in the fund when calculating an IRR for a public market index. At the same time, the PME calculation has to be sensitive to the impact of the market on the cash flows.

IRR measures speed and not size of returns – The IRR calculation assumes that realized returns can be re-invested at the same rate of return. This means that a proportionally large distribution occurring early in a fund’s life will have a disproportionate impact on the IRR for the life of the fund. When evaluating a private equity fund, it is important to look at the fund’s IRR alongside its TVPI multiple. This standard should also be followed when conducting PME analysis.

INTRODUCING BISON PME

Bison PME is a calculation that enables investors to measure public market IRR and TVPI performance. We developed the methodology after closely evaluating other PME methodologies and their shortcomings that result from how they handle the private equity fund’s cash flows. Specifically, we believe that it is important to leave constant the speed and proportionate value generated in the fund when calculating a PME IRR. We want to lower the risk of PME IRR being impacted by how IRR is calculated market. Based on early testing of 125 funds, Bison PME showed less volatility than other PME methodologies while accurately reflecting changes in public market index value.

CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT CALCULATING BISON PME AND READ OUR INITIAL WHITE PAPER.

We believe PME methods are important for understanding private equity performance and encourage investors to incorporate it into their fund performance analysis. The Bison PME method is an open standard provided for free. We believe it is best used side-by-side to Kaplan Schoar, but also encourage comparison with other PME methods.

Bison PME is available today for free to all Bison Performance Calculator users.

Making sense of PMEs

by Michael Roth

The private equity industry has always had its own way of measuring performance. Unlike a mutual fund, investors are committing to a blind pool of capital where GPs have discretion over the timing of inflows and outflows. This is why there is a difference in how you measure performance between a private equity fund and an equity mutual fund. Analyzing multiples of invested capital and IRRs – as opposed to a time weighted rate of return on public markets – allows investors to analyze a fund’s performance relative to its peers. However, if you are looking to compare a private equity fund’s performance to the public markets, you need to calculate a public market equivalent (“PME”) return measure. There are five main PME methodologies: Read the rest of this entry »

How Did 2005 – 2010 Buyout Funds Fare in H1 2013?

by Michael Roth

The beginning of a new year always has people reflecting on the previous year, and sometimes years. At Bison, we are in a unique position to be able track the private equity market from many angles. This allows us to analyze performance data for a broad cross-section of the fund universe. Read the rest of this entry »

Bubble…What Bubble?

by Michael Roth

We seem to be getting to one of those frothy points in the cycle where public markets only seem to know how to go up despite the underlying conditions. Considering the rising valuations and seemingly widely available debt these days, Bison decided to have a look into the “distant past” at buyout funds raised during 2006 and 2007, the last time market conditions felt a little too good to be true. Read the rest of this entry »

Conversations with Mike: Private Equity or Public Markets?

by goksor

Rasmus: This is the third blog post in the series Conversations with Mike.  I am speaking with my Bison co-founder, Mike Nugent, about the private equity and venture capital markets.  Today’s focus is on how private equity relates to the public markets.  Nice to have you back, Mike.

Mike: Good times. So where do you want to start?

Rasmus: I would love to hear your thoughts on the differences between public companies and companies that private equity firms invests in. Read the rest of this entry »